The June 30 Grain Stocks report forced USDA’s hand. A 150-million-bushel upward revision to old-crop feed and residual use drained beginning stocks and dropped new-crop corn carryout to 1.790 billion bushels — 65 million under consensus. Soybeans held at 310 million on absorbed exports; wheat fell to 722 million but landed above trade expectations.
WASDE-673 is a corn report. New-crop carryout was cut 170 million bushels to 1.790 billion — 65 million below the pre-release consensus — but not because of the crop. USDA raised 2025/26 feed and residual use by 150 million bushels on indicated disappearance from the June 30 Grain Stocks report, draining beginning stocks by 125 million bushels heading into 2026/27, then added a 50-million-bushel export increase on top. Soybeans held flat at 310 million bushels as a larger crop was absorbed entirely into higher exports, landing 14 million under consensus. Wheat carryout fell 22 million bushels to 722 million — the lowest U.S. production since 1970/71 — yet still printed 12 million above what the trade expected.
USDA reported 2026/27 corn carryout at 1.790 billion bushels, down 170 million bushels from the June projection of 1.960 billion. The pre-release trade consensus was 1.855 billion bushels; USDA came in 65 million bushels below the consensus average — a moderately bullish surprise — landing in the lower half of a wide 1.542–1.963 billion bushel survey range that reflected genuine early-season disagreement over new-crop yield.
Total use of 16,255 million bushels against carryout of 1,790 million bushels yields 40.2 days of use. Forty days still sits in the moderate range (30–50 days), but it is a meaningful step down from the June projection and from the 2025/26 estimated carryout of 2.020 billion bushels. The trend is tightening.
This is an old-crop consumption story, not a production story. USDA raised 2025/26 feed and residual use by 150 million bushels, citing indicated disappearance from the June 30 Grain Stocks report — feed and residual through the first three quarters of the marketing year totaled just over 5.6 billion bushels, against roughly 4.8 billion in the same period a year ago. That cut 2026/27 beginning stocks by 125 million bushels to 2.020 billion. On the new-crop side, exports were raised 50 million bushels on continued global demand strength, adding further pressure to carryout. Corn used for ethanol was trimmed 25 million bushels in 2025/26, providing only partial offset. New-crop production rose only fractionally to 16,000 million bushels, with yield unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre.
Futures and basis data were unavailable for this report; these elements are omitted rather than estimated. Verify settlement levels and carry structure against your own CME feed before making storage or pricing decisions.
USDA reported 2026/27 soybean carryout at 310 million bushels, unchanged from June. The pre-release trade consensus was 324 million bushels — USDA came in 14 million bushels below the consensus average, a moderately bullish surprise. The market had expected a modest stock build on larger harvested area; USDA instead absorbed the entire production increase into higher use.
Total use of 4,520 million bushels against carryout of 310 million bushels yields 25.0 days of use — the moderate range (20–35 days). Stocks are not historically tight, but at this level the balance sheet leaves limited cushion against any demand acceleration or production disappointment through the growing season.
Soybean production for 2026/27 was raised 40 million bushels to 4,475 million on higher harvested area of 84.4 million acres from the June 30 Acreage report, up 0.7 million acres. Yield is unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acre. Lower beginning stocks (down 10 million bushels to 330 million) partly offset, holding total supply to 4,830 million bushels — up 30 million from June. Exports were raised 30 million bushels on increased supplies and stronger global demand. Higher production flowing directly into higher exports left carryout flat at 310 million bushels. Crush was unchanged for both crop years.
Futures and basis data were unavailable for this report; these elements are omitted rather than estimated. Verify settlement levels and carry structure against your own CME feed before making storage or pricing decisions.
USDA reported 2026/27 wheat carryout at 722 million bushels, down 22 million bushels from the June projection of 744 million. The pre-release trade consensus was 710 million bushels — USDA came in 12 million bushels above the consensus average, a moderately bearish surprise relative to trade expectations, as the market had anticipated a more aggressive production cut. The figure still represents a significant year-over-year decline; the report notes carryout is down 22 percent from last year.
Total use of 1,874 million bushels against carryout of 722 million bushels yields 140.7 days of use. Wheat is best read in historical context: at 722 million bushels, 2026/27 carryout is well below the 2025/26 estimated level of 920 million bushels and below the 2024/25 level of 855 million. The report notes this would be the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970/71 at 1,536 million bushels — putting carryout at a multi-year low by recent standards, even though the days-of-use figure appears comfortable in isolation because domestic consumption is modest.
The revision was entirely supply-driven. Total supplies were reduced 22 million bushels, split between lower beginning stocks and lower production. All-wheat production was cut 7 million bushels to 1,536 million, with winter wheat production lowered 39 million bushels to 990 million — almost entirely in the Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter classes. The initial NASS survey-based forecast for other spring wheat came in at 475 million bushels, below last year on lower harvested area. Durum is also lower at 71 million bushels. Domestic use and exports were both unchanged at 1,099 million and 775 million bushels. The production shortfall flowed directly through to carryout.
Futures and basis data were unavailable for this report; these elements are omitted rather than estimated. Verify settlement levels and carry structure against your own CME feed before making storage or pricing decisions.
The dominant decision variable from WASDE-673 is the corn balance sheet. A 170-million-bushel carryout cut — landing 65 million bushels below the trade consensus — signals the June balance sheet was materially too loose. The mechanism matters: this was not a production surprise, it was a consumption reckoning. The June 30 Grain Stocks report confirmed old-crop feed and residual demand running roughly 800 million bushels ahead of last year’s pace through three quarters. That demand signal is real and already in the ground.
New-crop yield remains trend-based at 183.0 bushels per acre with the crop tour season still ahead. The wide pre-report range (1.542–1.963 billion bushels) reflects genuine uncertainty, and any weather-related yield trim from here has limited carryout cushion to absorb it. For physical operators, the near-term question is whether the Grain Stocks-driven feed surge is a one-time catch-up or a persistent shift in domestic feeding pace — export inspections and weekly ethanol grind reports over the next 7–10 days will help qualify the demand story.
On wheat, the bearish-versus-consensus print — USDA held carryout 12 million bushels above trade expectations — may temper an immediate rally, but watch HRW harvest results as the combine moves north through Kansas and into Nebraska. Any further yield disappointment would quickly close the gap between USDA’s 722-million-bushel projection and the trade’s 710-million-bushel consensus.
Soybean operators should monitor Chinese import booking pace. USDA absorbed a 40-million-bushel production increase entirely into higher exports, leaving carryout unchanged — if that export assumption softens, stocks rebuild quickly.