USDA’s first projection of the 2026/27 marketing year delivered the sharpest downside carryout surprise of the year in wheat — 762 million bushels, 79 million under consensus, on a Hard Red Winter production forecast down 25 percent. Soybeans came in 43 million bushels under consensus on aggressive crush and export assumptions. Corn landed effectively on top of the trade estimate.
WASDE-671 is USDA’s first look at 2026/27, and the balance sheets arrived tighter than the trade expected in two of three commodities. New-crop all-wheat carryout of 762 million bushels came in 79 million bushels below consensus — a sharply bullish surprise driven by a 424-million-bushel production decline and a Hard Red Winter forecast down 25 percent year over year. Soybeans printed 310 million bushels, 43 million under consensus, as USDA absorbed a larger crop into higher crush and recovering exports. Corn, at 1.957 billion bushels, was 3 million bushels off the consensus average — a non-event. There is no month-over-month revision to calculate this month: April carried no 2026/27 column. These are the baselines from which the rest of the crop year departs.
USDA reported 2026/27 corn carryout at 1.957 billion bushels, 3 million bushels below the pre-release trade consensus of 1.960 billion bushels — an effectively neutral outcome relative to analyst expectations. Because this is USDA’s first projection of the 2026/27 marketing year, there is no prior WASDE month from which to calculate a month-over-month revision; the April 2026/27 column carries no estimate. The 1.957-billion-bushel carryout compares to the estimated 2025/26 carryout of 2.142 billion bushels — a reduction of 185 million bushels year over year.
The WASDE statistical table states 2026/27 corn carryout at 1,957 million bushels against total use of 16,205 million bushels — 44.1 days of use. That places new-crop corn in the moderate range (30–50 days): tighter than old crop, but not historically stressed. Old-crop 2025/26 carries approximately 47.6 days; the new-crop projection is a modest step tighter, reflecting a smaller crop against still-substantial demand.
The year-over-year carryout reduction is driven primarily by a production decline of 1,026 million bushels — from 17,021 million bushels in 2025/26 to 15,995 million bushels in 2026/27 — on projected planted area of 95.3 million acres (down 3.5 million) and a trend yield of 183.0 bushels per acre (down from last year’s record 186.5). Larger beginning stocks of 2,142 million bushels partially cushion the supply decline. On the use side, feed and residual is projected down to 6,100 million bushels and exports at 3,150 million bushels, both below old crop, limiting the drawdown on carryout.
Futures and basis data were unavailable for this report; these elements are omitted rather than estimated. Verify settlement levels and carry structure against your own CME feed before making storage or pricing decisions.
USDA reported 2026/27 soybean carryout at 310 million bushels, 43 million bushels below the pre-release trade consensus of 353 million bushels — a moderately bullish surprise. As with corn, no month-over-month revision is calculable because April carried no 2026/27 projection. Year over year, new-crop carryout is down 30 million bushels from the revised 2025/26 forecast of 340 million bushels, despite a substantially larger projected crop.
Carryout of 310 million bushels against total use of 4,490 million bushels implies 25.2 days of use — in the moderate range for soybeans (20–35 days), but toward the tighter end of the band. Old-crop 2025/26 carryout of 340 million bushels against total use of 4,272 million bushels implies roughly 29.0 days. New-crop stocks are therefore slightly tighter relative to use despite a larger projected crop, driven by aggressive crush and export assumptions.
The tighter-than-expected carryout is a demand-absorption story on both the crush and export sides. USDA projects 2026/27 crush at 2,750 million bushels, up 120 million bushels from 2025/26, supported by soybean oil demand as a biofuel feedstock — soybean oil use for biofuel is projected at 17.8 billion pounds, up 3.6 billion pounds year over year. Exports are projected to recover to 1,630 million bushels, up 100 million bushels from the tariff-suppressed 2025/26 level. Total use rises to 4,490 million bushels, more than offsetting a larger projected crop of 4,435 million bushels.
Futures and basis data were unavailable for this report; these elements are omitted rather than estimated. Verify settlement levels and carry structure against your own CME feed before making storage or pricing decisions.
USDA reported 2026/27 all-wheat carryout at 762 million bushels, 79 million bushels below the pre-release trade consensus of 841 million bushels — a sharply bullish surprise and the largest miss of the three commodities. Year over year, new-crop carryout is down 173 million bushels from the estimated 2025/26 level of 935 million bushels, an 18 percent reduction noted explicitly in the WASDE narrative.
Carryout of 762 million bushels against total use of 1,874 million bushels implies 148.4 days of use. Old-crop 2025/26 carryout of 935 million bushels against total use of 2,030 million bushels implies roughly 168.2 days. The new-crop projection is a meaningful tightening of roughly 20 days of use — though in absolute terms wheat carryout remains historically large relative to the corn and soybean readings above.
The carryout reduction is overwhelmingly a production story: all-wheat production falls 424 million bushels, from 1,985 million bushels in 2025/26 to a projected 1,561 million bushels in 2026/27, on harvested area of 32.9 million acres and an all-wheat yield of 47.5 bushels per acre — down 5.8 bushels from last year’s record. The first survey-based Hard Red Winter production forecast is down 25 percent from a year ago to 1,048 million bushels, carrying the bulk of the supply reduction. Exports are projected down 135 million bushels to 775 million bushels on reduced exportable supplies, partially cushioning the drawdown. Beginning stocks of 935 million bushels provide a partial offset but cannot compensate for the magnitude of the production shortfall.
Futures and basis data were unavailable for this report; these elements are omitted rather than estimated. Verify settlement levels and carry structure against your own CME feed before making storage or pricing decisions.
WASDE-671 is defined by the combination of a sharply bullish wheat carryout surprise and a moderately bullish soybean miss — both below consensus on this first look at 2026/27 balance sheets.
The wheat story is the most immediately actionable for physical operators. A 762-million-bushel new-crop carryout — driven by a Hard Red Winter production forecast down 25 percent on sharply lower harvested area and yield — landed 79 million bushels under consensus, signaling that HRW basis strength could extend into the summer marketing window if crop condition reports confirm the May yield projection. Operators still holding old crop against 935 million bushels of 2025/26 carryout should watch the pace of June–July HRW harvest movement closely; if new-crop production comes in near or below the 1,561-million-bushel projection, Kansas City HRW cash basis could firm relative to current expectations.
On soybeans, the 310-million-bushel carryout rests on an aggressive crush assumption — 2,750 million bushels — that hinges on EPA’s Renewable Volume Obligations holding and biofuel feedstock demand materializing through 2026/27. RVO rulemaking and monthly crush data are the primary confirmation or contradiction of the USDA demand thesis.
For corn, a near-consensus carryout of 1.957 billion bushels at 44.1 days of use offers no clear storage signal until June acreage and early-season condition data begin to refine the 95.3-million-acre planted area and 183.0-bushel trend yield that underpin this first, highly tentative projection.